Monday, March 09, 2020

CoVid-19 - loving all that winning... (3-9-2020, 7:35pm)

Another non-info presser about CoVid-19 just extruded from the TV a few minutes ago, more concerned with the stock market than health guidance or support. So here are some boring numbers, making use of boring mathematics, a craft probably regarded as too "witchy" for these folks:
In China, 80,739 cases, 3120 deaths - mortality rate 3.9% Italy, 9,172 cases, 463 deaths, mortality 5% South Korea, 7,478 cases, 53 deaths, mortality ***0.7%*** Iran, 7161 cases, 237 deaths, mortality 3.3% France, 1412 cases, 30 deaths,mortality 2.1% Spain, 1231 cases, 30 deaths, mortality 2.4% Germany, 1224 cases, 2 deaths, mortality ***0.2%*** USA, 624 cases, 26 deaths, mortality ***4.2%*** Japan, 530 cases, 9 deaths, mortality 1.7% And across Europe, Sweden, 261 cases; Belgium, 239 cases; Norway, 227 cases; Austria, 131 cases, and NO DEATHS reported. The WHO estimated COVID-19 Mortality at 3.4% about 12 hours ago. You may notice that the USA has a mortality rate currently second only to Italy, which is essentially in lockdown and a pariah to world travel, and just above that of Iran. It appears that the less transparent the government, the greater denial those governments have had regarding the outbreaks within their borders, or countries that have a casual approach to proactive testing have greater mortality rates. The countries that have a well organized, more integrated health care system certainly appear to be faring better in this crisis, which hasn't crossed the borders into Michigan - yet. The increase in US cases is moving at a logarithmic, not linear, rate at this point (math-speak for describing not a gradual line upward, but a curve shooting sharply up). The USA is at #8, but it'll be likely competing with Germany before the week is out. Oh, and Friday is the 13th. Perfect! (data from Worldometers, as of 7pm 3-9-2020)

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